Predicting Euro 2024 (Final)
In the last weeks I have built 2 different models to predict the Group Stage results of Euro 2024. You can check the previous articles in my blog to understand how the model works. In this article I explained how the model predicts results. While in this article I explained how to predict the total goals.
Last week I published an article where I updated my model and predictions for both results and goals in the Semi Finals.
In this article we will review the results of the model so far and see the predictions for the Final.
Semi Finals predictions (results and goals)
Below there is the usual table with the predicted and actual results and goals of all matches (after 90 minutes). Together I show the potential wins considering the odds from oddsportal.
| Date | Match | Result | Prediction (Win) | Over/Under 2.5 (Win) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-07-24 | Spain-France | 2-1 | 1 (+1.74) | Under (-1.00) |
| 10-07-24 | Netherlands-England | 1-2 | 1 (-1.00) | Under (-1.00) |
| Total | 1/2 (+0.74) | 0/2 (-2.00) |
Overall, we have 1 out of 4 correct results, a 25% accuracy. Simulating a betting strategy of 1 unit per match, this would have lost 1.26 units.
The model completely failed (again) predicting the goals scored.
Let’s have a look at how the model performed in each round so far.
| Matchday | 1X2 prediction (Win) | Goals prediction (Win) |
|---|---|---|
| Match 1 | 4/11 (-4.04) | 5/11 (-0.65) |
| Match 2 | 7/12 (+5.38) | 3/12 (-6.62) |
| Match 3 | 8/12 (+14.15) | 5/12 (-2.39) |
| Round 16 | 5/8 (+10.57) | 3/8 (-2.25) |
| Quarter Finals | 3/4 (+3.61) | 0/4 (-4.00) |
| Semi Finals | 1/2 (+0.74) | 0/2 (-2.00) |
| Total | 28/49 (+30.41) | 16/49 (-17.91) |
The model keeps performing well in the 1X2 market, increasing its total wins. It has a poor performance in the Over/Under 2.5 market, where it loses against the bookies in every matchday.
Betting on both markets with a stake of 1 unit for each match, would still bring a profit of 12.50 units. With a conservative approach of a 50 units bankroll, with 2% of it stacked on each bet (1 unit) this means an ROI of 25%.
Final predictions
The prediction for the Final will also take into account only the team’s performance during the Tournament, and not the Qualifiers. This is the prediction for 1X2 and Over/Under 2.5 markets, after 90 minutes.
| Date | Match | Prediction (Odds) | Over/Under 2.5 (Odds) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14-07-24 | Spain-England | 1 (2.51) | Over (2.60) |
The Final prediction for the Euro 2024 is Spain to win vs England, without needing to go the Extra Time. The model also predicts Over 2.5 goals scored, so the most likely result could be 2-1 for Spain.
All the code to run the simulation is available in my latest book, where I explain how to build a betting model for Euro 2024. I have also written a few books where I go into the details of how to get the data, visualize and train a model to predict football results for the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga and the other major European national tournaments, complete with code examples.
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