Predicting Euro 2024 (matchday 3)
In the last weeks I have built 2 different models to predict the Group Stage results of Euro 2024. In this article I explained how to predict the results for the matches played in matchday 1. While in this article I explained how to predict the total goals scored in the Group Stage matches.
Last week I published a third article where I updated my model and predictions for both results and goals in match day 2.
Let’s look at the result to see how the model behaved in the second matchday of the competition and let’s see the model predictions for matchday three.
Matchday 2 predictions
See below the table with the predicted and actual results and goals of all matches.
| Date | Match | Result | Prediction (Win) | Over/Under 2.5 (Odds) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19-06-24 | Croatia-Albania | 2-2 | X (+3.46) | Under (-1.00) |
| 19-06-24 | Germany-Hungary | 2-0 | 1 (+0.27) | Over (-1.00) |
| 19-06-24 | Scotland-Switzerland | 1-1 | 2 (-1.00) | Over (-1.00) |
| 20-06-24 | Slovenia-Serbia | 1-1 | 1 (-1.00) | Over (-1.00) |
| 20-06-24 | Denmark-England | 1-1 | 1 (-1.00) | Over (-1.00) |
| 20-06-24 | Spain-Italy | 1-0 | 1 (+1.14) | Under (+0.70) |
| 21-06-24 | Slovakia-Ukraine | 1-2 | 2 (+1.10) | Under (-1.00) |
| 21-06-24 | Poland-Austria | 1-2 | 2 (+0.98) | Over (+0.96) |
| 21-06-24 | Netherlands-France | 0-0 | 2 (-1.00) | Over (-1.00) |
| 22-06-24 | Georgia-Czechia | 1-1 | X (+2.85) | Over (-1.00) |
| 22-06-24 | Türki̇ye-Portugal | 0-3 | 2 (+0.58) | Over (+0.72) |
| 22-06-24 | Belgium-Romania | 2-0 | X (-1.00) | Over (-1.00) |
| Total | 7/12 (+5.38) | 3/12 (-6.62) |
The model managed to predict the draw between Albania and Croatia. This was a high-odds prediction, that would be hard to make, given the relative strength of the teams. It also predicted a number of other high odds results, like the draw between Czechia and Georgia.
The total correct predictions are 7 out of 12, which is a 58% accuracy. Simulating a betting strategy of 1 unit per match, this would have won 5.38 units.
The model was much less accurate with the Over/Under market. It got only 1 out of 3 Under predictions right, and only 1 out of 9 Over predictions. Overall the matches of the second match day have been low scoring, with at most 2 goals per game.
The total correct predictions are 3 out of 12, which is 25% accuracy. Simulating a betting strategy of 1 unit per match, this would have lost 6.62 units.
Matchday 3 results and goals predictions
Here we use the same approach as for the first two matchdays. We add the statistics of the teams in matchday 1 and 2 and try to predict how will matchday 3 go. From one side, this should give even better results, but it doesn’t take into account the situation of the Groups, where some teams have already qualified and some other have nothing to play for anymore.
| Date | Match | Prediction (Odds) | Over/Under 2.5 (Odds) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23-06-24 | Switzerland-Germany | 2 (1.71) | Over (2.05) |
| 23-06-24 | Scotland-Hungary | 2 (2.50) | Over (1.78) |
| 24-06-24 | Albania-Spain | 2 (1.46) | Over (1.81) |
| 24-06-24 | Croatia-Italy | X (3.23) | Under (1.91) |
| 25-06-24 | Netherlands-Austria | X (3.11) | Over (1.92) |
| 25-06-24 | France-Poland | X (5.70) | Over (2.20) |
| 25-06-24 | England-Slovenia | X (4.74) | Under (1.93) |
| 25-06-24 | Denmark-Serbia | X (3.57) | Under (2.07) |
| 26-06-24 | Slovakia-Romania | X (2.07) | Over (2.96) |
| 26-06-24 | Ukraine-Belgium | 2 (1.67) | Over (1.74) |
| 26-06-24 | Georgia-Portugal | 2 (1.40) | Over (1.57) |
| 26-06-24 | Czechia-Türki̇ye | 2 (2.88) | Over (1.78) |
As explained above, the model incorporates the teams performance in the first two matches, but it doesn’t take into account that some teams need win to qualify and therefore might not be happy settling with a draw. This should be taken into account in a betting strategy and the appropriate edging should be applied.
If you are interested in learning more about how to build a betting model for Euro 2024 and building a model to predict football results, I have written a few books where I go into the details of how to get the data, visualize and train a model, complete with code examples.
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