Predicting Euro 2024 (Semi Finals)
In the last weeks I have built 2 different models to predict the Group Stage results of Euro 2024. You can check the previous articles in my blog to understand how the model works. In this article I explained how the model predicts results. While in this article I explained how to predict the total goals.
Last week I published an article where I updated my model and predictions for both results and goals in the Quarter Finals.
In this article we will review the results of the model so far and see the predictions for the Semi Finals.
Quarter Finals predictions (results and goals)
Below there is the usual table with the predicted and actual results and goals of all matches (after 90 minutes). Together I show the potential wins considering the odds from oddsportal.
| Date | Match | Result | Prediction (Win) | Over/Under 2.5 (Win) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-07-24 | Germany-Spain | 1-1 | 1 (-1.00) | Over (-1.00) |
| 05-07-24 | Portugal-France | 0-0 | X (+2.01) | Over (-1.00) |
| 06-07-24 | England-Switzerland | 1-1 | X (+1.99) | Over (-1.00) |
| 06-07-24 | Netherlands-Türkiye | 2-1 | 1 (+0.61) | Under (-1.00) |
| Total | 3/4 (+3.61) | 0/4 (-4.00) |
Overall, the model confirms the previous performance, with a good win rate on the results, but a poor one on the goals predictions.
Overall, we have 3 out of 4 correct results, a 75% accuracy. Simulating a betting strategy of 1 unit per match, this would have won 3.61 units.
The model completely failed predicting the goals scored, confirming its poor performance on this.
Let’s have a look at how the model performed in each round so far.
| Matchday | 1X2 prediction (Win) | Goals prediction (Win) |
|---|---|---|
| Match 1 | 4/11 (-4.04) | 5/11 (-0.65) |
| Match 2 | 7/12 (+5.38) | 3/12 (-6.62) |
| Match 3 | 8/12 (+14.15) | 5/12 (-2.39) |
| Round 16 | 5/8 (+10.57) | 3/8 (-2.25) |
| Quarter Finals | 3/4 (+3.61) | 0/4 (-4.00) |
| Total | 27/47 (+29.67) | 16/47 (-15.91) |
Again we can see that the model performs well in the 1X2 market, but it has a poor performance in the Over 2.5 market, where it loses against the bookies in every matchday.
Betting on both markets with a stake of 1 unit for each match, would bring a profit of 13.76 units. With a conservative approach of a 50 units bankroll, with 2% of it stacked on each bet (1 unit) this means an ROI of 27.5%.
Semifinals predictions
For the semifinals predictions, I have decided to give importance only to the performance of the teams during the Tournament and leave out the Qualifiers performance. We are far enough into the competition that it doesn’t make much sense to still take into account how the teams performed before the beginning of the Tournament. These are the predictions for 1X2 and Over/Under 2.5 markets. All the predictions are after 90 minutes.
| Date | Match | Prediction (Odds) | Over/Under 2.5 (Odds) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09-07-24 | Spain-France | 1 (2.74) | Under (1.50) |
| 10-07-24 | Netherlands-England | 1 (3.25) | Under (1.53) |
The Spain-France predictions looks reasonable and in line with the odds, while Netherlands winning against England has quite high odds according to the bookies. Both matches are predicted to finish below 2.5 goals, which has been the case for most matches so far. This is probably why the odds for that to happen are quite low.
All the code to run the simulation is available in my latest book, where I explain how to build a betting model for Euro 2024. I have also written a few books where I go into the details of how to get the data, visualize and train a model to predict football results for the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga and the other major European national tournaments, complete with code examples.
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