Primeira Liga predictions this weekend
I have been training an ML model on all matches from European domestic leagues. The model is trained to predict the expected points of each team and uses data from 11 European Leagues since 2008/09.
I use the model predictions to get the over/under performers so far and bet on their regression to the mean. These are the results for all leagues so far.
| Division | Win | Yield % |
|---|---|---|
| Belgian First | 32.08 | 31.45 |
| Bundesliga | 0.38 | 0.4 |
| Championship | 12.96 | 5.4 |
| Eredivisie | -39.9 | -42.45 |
| La Liga | -15.2 | -13.82 |
| Ligue 1 | -15.62 | -16.98 |
| Premier League | 44.7 | 39.21 |
| Primeira Liga | -3.88 | -6.26 |
| Scottish PL | -14.46 | -12.05 |
| Serie A | 27.78 | 27.24 |
| Serie B | -35.2 | -32 |
| SuperLig | -27.14 | -28.87 |
| Total | -33.5 | -5.02 |
And these are the predictions for the Primeira Liga matches this weekend
| HomeTeam | AwayTeam | Prediction | Odds | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional | Estoril | X | 3.26 | 2025-02-15 |
| Moreirense | Casa Pia | 1 | 2.35 | 2025-02-15 |
| Guimaraes | Sp Braga | X | 3.51 | 2025-02-16 |
| Rio Ave | AVS | X | 3.31 | 2025-02-16 |
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If you liked the article and want to know more about soccer analytics applied to the betting markets, I have written a few books where I go into the details of how to get the data, visualize and train a model to predict football results for the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga and the other major European national tournaments, complete with code examples.