Predicting Euro 2024 (The recap)
In the last weeks I have built 2 different models to predict the Group Stage results of Euro 2024. You can check the previous articles in my blog to understand how the model works. In this article I explained how the model predicts results. While in this article I explained how to predict the total goals.
Over the course of the Tournament I have shared all predictions, from Match Day 1 to the [Final][final-predictions].
In this article I want to review the result of the model so far and see how good (or bad) those predictions where.
Predictions (Recap results and goals)
This is how the model performed in each match day of the Euro 2024 Tournament. I have highlighted how many results the model got right, and also what would be the outcome of betting on every single one of those matches (considering the odds from oddsportal).
| Matchday | 1X2 prediction (Win) | Goals prediction (Win) |
|---|---|---|
| Match 1 | 4/11 (-4.04) | 5/11 (-0.65) |
| Match 2 | 7/12 (+5.38) | 3/12 (-6.62) |
| Match 3 | 8/12 (+14.15) | 5/12 (-2.39) |
| Round 16 | 5/8 (+10.57) | 3/8 (-2.25) |
| Quarter Finals | 3/4 (+3.61) | 0/4 (-4.00) |
| Semi Finals | 1/2 (+0.74) | 0/2 (-2.00) |
| Final | 1/1 (+1.51) | 1/1 (+1.60) |
| Total | 29/50 (+31.92) | 17/50 (-16.31) |
As we can see, the model has performed quite well in the 1X2 market, where it manages to predict 58% of the results correctly. While it was not so successful in predicting the goals scored, where it only had a 34% accuracy, on the Over/Under 2.5 goals market.
Betting on both markets with a stake of 1 unit for each match, would bring a profit of 15.61 units. With a conservative approach of a 50 units bankroll, and 2% of it stacked on each bet (1 unit) this means an ROI of 31.2%.
Since the Euros are over, I have now made the code and the book available for everyone. You can find it on sale on Gumroad for a symbolic price of 1 dollar. I have also written a few books where I go into the details of how to get the data, visualize and train a model to predict football results for the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga and the other major European national tournaments, complete with code examples.
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